Going Ford at Deakin

Deakin University is the only Australian university selected to take part in the Ford Global Challenge.

Dr Bernard Rolfe and his team have been asked to design a Model T for the 21st Century.

The car itself will have a post-petroleum engine, running on compressed air, but oil of the midnight variety is being burned in huge quantities in the big shed at the back of the Geelong Technology Precinct.

The design remains top-secret but insiders say its contours and construction components will be a long way from the original Model T, the car that changed the world and which is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year.

The links between both Geelong and Ford and Deakin and Ford are enduring.

The first Model T to roll off a production line in Australia did so in Geelong in 1925, the same year the motor company began sponsoring the town’s team in the Victorian Football League.

Deakin and Ford began their relationship in the early 1990s, something strengthened greatly by the arrival of Professor Peter Hodgson at the University.

Professor Hodgson regularly invites Emeritus Professor John Duncan, a world leader in motor vehicle design, to visit Deakin to pass on his knowledge to the young researchers at the GTP.

He has world class expertise in both the design of modern cars, and also the original Model T.

Professor Duncan has written a history of the Model T called “Any Colour, So Long As It’s Black”.

The scion of one of the pioneering automotive industry families in Australia, he has been much in demand with the media recently, appearing on Late Night Live with Phillip Adams in early August.

He has also written an essay on the potential of a modern Model T for the Asian market that he has kindly allowed us to reproduce for the Deakin Research newsletter. Some of the message contained therein will be high in the minds of Bernard Rolfe and his team at the moment.

A MODEL T for ASIA
by
John Duncan

The Model T Ford was launched in Detroit in 1908. This event, for better or worse, transformed the Western world. It would be a strange twist of fate if one hundred years later there was a reincarnation in the form of a new, but different "Model T" in Asia. There are parallels. Conditions in the United States when the original Model T was born are similar to those in parts of Asia today, particularly in India and China. Then and now we see the same desire on the part of many people to own a car and history shows that this ambition is a major social and economic force that governments find hard to deflect, even if they want to. The wish to own a car is one thing; the other is to have a vehicle that is suitable for the everyday man and woman. Strange as it may seem, until Henry Ford designed the Model T in 1908, the right car for the mass market did not exist. When it did appear, the vast number of Fords sold (at one point half of the cars manufactured in the whole world were Model Ts) proved that even if the car was not what people might have wanted, it was certainly what they needed and what was right for them. Why was it so popular? Most people believe that the car was successful because the price was low and that this came about because of the mass production methods Ford introduced to manufacture the vehicle. This is true in part, but the main reason for its success was its performance and that resulted from the brilliance of its mechanical design. The car was light, strong, and powerful and could handle the rough roads that then existed.  It was also different from other cars at the time and it was the design that enabled it to be made cheaply and in huge quantities. Because so many features of the Model T were copied later by the industry, we do not appreciate today how different it was from other cars, and how it foreshadowed many of the developments that occurred in the next two decades in automotive engineering. It was at least 10 years ahead of the rest of the industry. The advances made are far from obvious to the un-tutored eye; they can only be seen in subtle technical details and many of these became submerged or forgotten in the mountain of folklore and anecdote that grew up with the Model T. The essence of the design was that Henry Ford aimed at reliable, low-cost transportation for the novice owner-driver; it was not designed as a status symbol and, as Ford abhorred ostentation, he was concerned only about the performance of the car and how this fitted in with the life, the work and the pocket of the average person. The combination of these things, design for mass manufacture, affordability and a fitness for the purpose, were things that at the time Henry Ford saw clearly and they were the keys to its success. For the first time, most families could afford a car, they could drive it and maintain it and its performance was admirably suited to their needs. Paradoxically it may not have been what they wanted; if the buyers had had more money, and if the roads had been better and dealers more sophisticated they would have bought something much flashier, and eventually they did.

If people in United States in 1908 were on the threshold of widespread private ownership of motor cars, how closely is this mirrored in Asia at the present moment? Clearly the situation varies from country to country, but in India and China it appears that during the last few years, aspirations are remarkably similar to those in America one hundred years ago. The difference is that in the United States, the population was then of the order of 100 million; China and India together have a population measured in thousands of millions. To engage in some simple-minded and probably erroneous extrapolation, if someone designs and builds a 'Model T' for this market, they can expect to sell 150 or 200 million vehicles. (To provide some perspective, the current total annual global vehicle production is about 55 million. The increase of sales in China has been dramatic, from a mere 600,000 in the year 2000 to an estimated 6 million in 2008.)  The thought of all these additional cars bringing Asian cities to a standstill, clogging up the roads and villages, creating massive pollution and accelerating fuel shortages and global warming is disquieting, to say the least. You might believe that governments would not permit this, but think again. These problems have been apparent for a while in the West and in spite of all the rhetoric, little has been done to change the situation. If the West has done little, China has moved in the opposite direction by subsidizing fuel to stimulate demand. 

The question of whether a sudden surge in private ownership of cars in some countries is a good or bad thing is not discussed here. If we assume that it will happen, is it likely that one design will dominate in the first decade as the Model T Ford did? The experts and the established car companies would say "no" and maintain that there are already a large number of auto plants in Asia producing a wide spectrum of vehicles that will satisfy the market. Most likely the industry would have said the same thing in United States in 1908. There were many more car-makers in the country then than there are now and the models offered were bewildering in their variety. The industry did not expect that the board was about to be swept by a single vehicle that many derided.

In India and China, the precursors of today's vehicles are interesting. For many years, India produced a replica of a very solid family car of conventional English design; it was old-fashioned when it was born, but it was a strong car although only affordable by a few. China produced a similar vehicle of Eastern European design in factories set up in the 1950s by the Russians. The factories were frozen in time and produced the same car without change for thirty years. This was superseded in the 1980s by joint ventures with foreign companies producing replicas of existing Western models. There was, in between, a uniquely Chinese machine that Henry Ford would have delighted in. It was a trailer with the tow-bar replaced with a single wheel and motor arrangement on a swivel. It was steered as a child steers its scooter and was highly effective and inexpensive, but unfortunately also rather dangerous. Visitors to China in the early 80s will remember the many sturdy little horses pulling rubber-tired carts, the three-wheeled "put-puts" mentioned and the millions of bicycles pedalled five abreast and in unison down the city streets. Most of these have gone. There are lots of buses, taxis and passenger cars, but as yet no outrageously inexpensive car or utility vehicle of uniquely Chinese design that many can purchase.

Car sales in China are dominated by Western and Japanese vehicles produced there by various joint venture companies. One could hardly call the new owners of these cars the "middle class"; in terms of income they are squashed in a narrow band at the top end of the income spectrum. There is still nearly one thousand million whose incomes are much lower. What will their vehicle be? One informed view is that it will not be a car, but a motor scooter and it is true that in India two-wheeled vehicles outsell cars by almost an order of magnitude.

Perhaps a two-wheeled vehicle will be the Asian version of the Model T, but it is possible that a utilitarian four-wheel vehicle will emerge that is radically different and is manufactured using cheaper methods. It is unlikely that the established car companies will come up with a new design for this market. The world automotive industry is seriously lacking in vision and creativity at the present time and has become bogged down in manufacturing techniques that are stereotyped and wasteful; its ability to find a radical solution is doubtful. The industry disparages the concept of a serviceable vehicle with a base price of $3,000 and suggests you would not get much for your money. We forget that when the Model T was being sold for $500, Henry Ford's challenge was that no other make costing less than $2,000 offered all that his car did. This was not an idle boast; it may have been an exaggeration but it was justified.

The successful design of the original Model T had much to do with the personality of Henry Ford. The world has been quick to find fault with him and there is plenty of evidence of a dark side to his character, but had he paid more attention to the opinion of others, there would have been no Model T. Is such a person necessary for the new Model T? The answer is probably "Yes", but where will he or she be found amongst all the smooth individuals that make up the government, industry and bureaucracy of the world. The fact is that Asia is a big place; there are so many people that one or two could emerge with the vision, drive and creativity to dream up the right vehicle and the way to make it in untold millions. It will be a fascinating event. Regardless of whether it is a good or bad thing; like Shakespeare's King Henry, we all want to "read the book of fate/ And see the revolution of the times.". As is usually the case, we will be unprepared and surprised by what happens.   

John Duncan is a retired engineer, academic and consultant to the auto industry. His book, "Any colour – so long as it's black", Exisle Publishing, 2008, is a study of the design of the Model T Ford. In preparing this article, he has been assisted by a former colleague, Steve Panton, now resident in Detroit. Steve assists automakers in Europe, North America and Asia in the introduction of advanced computer software system.

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